Crime control strategies Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 1

Crime control strategies - Essay Example According to Otis Rice, the legacy of the civil war, and the weakness of institutions such as the church, education system, the isolation of the family, and the impotence of the law led to the origin of those feuds with an example being the Hatfield-McCoy feud (King, 2013). The occasional revenge in retribution to the evil done by each rival side shortly set the wheel in motion. John Ed Pearce adds that much of the feud violence never reached the courts. This is because they had little or no trust, for them, thus ended up settling the matters themselves (King, 2013). He adds most of the settlers were of aristocratic background, who had fled harsh English laws and oppression, and had found a new way of life of which they wanted nobody to infringe on them. Therefore, they fought for what they saw as justice themselves a case being the Martin-Tolliver feud in Kentucky. In conclusion, revenge, poor justice system, need for self-rule and political factors made the family feuds and conflicts had to resolve hence their longevity. The quest for freedom and the thought of crushing anybody, which threatened it be it laws or neighboring society, made the feuds escalate to an extent of a legendary

Holocaust and the effects on the prisoners Research Paper

Holocaust and the effects on the prisoners - Research Paper Example In concentration and labor camps, innocent people suffered with physical pressures, such as intense hunger, crowded quarters, disease, exposure to severe punishment and bodily torture, and heavy labor. Prisoners were often humiliated by soldiers to the point of dehumanization. Their heads were shaved, they were forced to wear prisoner uniforms, and their identities were replaced by a number on their arm. Those individuals in hiding, faced constant concerns of being caught. Mental pressures experienced by all victims during this horrific period included painful separation from family and friends, a lack of knowledge as to what fate would bear upon loved ones, and uncertainty about one's own existence. With their own eyes, they witnessed the destruction of families and communities. The values and social norms by which these individuals had led their lives were completely destroyed. For most survivors, the events of the Holocaust were ongoing, uncontrollable, and unexpected. Many were proximally close to the traumatic events, witnessing terror and horror brought upon them by other human beings. The experiences involved separation from family and friends and long lasting consequences which in many cases could not be reversed. It is a prevalent concept that all Holocaust survivors suffer from enduring psychological and physical distress as a result of their earlier trauma experiences. In this paper I will assert that all Holocaust survivors cannot be considered a homogenous group with the same patterns of symptoms and characteristics. They not only managed to resume their lives after the war but actually had rich and varied lives, were vital contributors to their communities, and maintained stable family and work patterns. Holocaust and the effects on the prisoners For a long time, discussion of the Holocaust was considered a taboo subject. Survivors spoke little about it and others did not seem to want to hear. A deep curtain of silence hung over one of the most horrendous events in human history. A number of reasons contributed to this circumstance. For years following the war, survivors were busy reestablishing their lives and homes and tried hard not to remember the past. It was not until the 1960s that interest in the Holocaust became more fully developed. It was at that time that the mental health community first became involved in dealing systematically with the after-effects of Holocaust traumatization. This was partially due to the political-moral decision of the Federal Republic of Germany to provide indemnification to individual victims of the Nazi regime for the hardships that they had suffered. In order to claim restitution, it was necessary to prove the existence of a causal link between Nazi persecution and health status, including mental health status. It became evident at that time to many of the medical professionals workin g with the survivors, that a host of symptoms, seemingly without organic cause, existed among their clients. These symptoms experienced were often linked to atrocities committed against the survivors. It became essential to conceptualize clinically the symptoms and conditions that appeared quite regularly in a great number of the survivors. The Concentration Camp Syndrome/ Survivor Syndrome, as discussed by Krystal (1968), and many others became known nosologically as a relatively fixed, lifelong condition characterized by a broad range of symptoms that could be traced to the Holocaust experience. Holocaust Survivors The Concentration Camp Syndrome Symptoms of the Concentration Camp Syndrome included (1) lasting depression with features of vigilant insomnia,

Case Study Deloitte Case 09-8 Classified information

Deloitte 09-8 Classified information - Case Study Example In the year 2006, the gross profit increased by 8.6%, with the total net sales increasing to a figure of $ 86.5 million, the sassy Spa division yielding a net profit of $ 11.2 million. Contribution from the ‘Sassy Spa Division,’ therefore, increased by a whopping 287.18 %. This shows that the other divisions did not contribute much to increase in sales revenue in 2006. Contribution to the total profit in the year 2006 was therefore from sale of a fixed asset i.e. the sale of corporate HQ ($ 1.7 million), and winning a lawsuit against a supplier yielding further revenue of $ 2.7 million. This contributed to a non-operating income of $ 4.4 million in the financial year 2006. ‘420-10-S99’ codification standard defines such income as restructuring charges and may not be presented in an income statement as extraordinary items. Paragraph ‘225-20-45-16’ states that items which do not meet the classification criteria of an extraordinary item should be reported as component of income. Therefore, this figure can be added to the gross profit in 2006, yielding net revenue of $ 34.8

Analysis of Global Economic Growth

Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September Analysis of Global Economic Growth Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September

The Idea Of Romantic Love Essay -- essays research papers

We are brought up on romantic love. Is this true in your experience? If so write a paper on which you first define this amorphous concept and then discuss how you came about it. For eg. Have you been influenced by media, T.V., movies in particular. Conclude by stating whether you believe in romantic love or have cast of the idea. â€Å"I don’t care what you think, when he comes I’ll leave and won’t even turn back and look at you, he’ll love me, he won’t be like you†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Words spoken by me when I was barely 10 years of age. I was addressing my mother after we’d had an argument and referring to the arrival of my prince charming who would understand all my dilemmas and make life ‘heaven’ for me. Such is the perception of romantic love that I formed ever since I began to realize the dynamics of the relationship between a man and woman. It is what is fed to us through nursery rhymes, and fairytales and it is a world that we do not wish to leave for fear of abandonment and loneliness. As we progress through life we are constantly exposed to the likes of television serials, movies and of course ‘mills & boon’ romances, all aimed at reinforcing the very first impressions of bliss that we formed with regard to the loved one and love life in general. Infact, falling in love with a handsome young prince and galloping away with him into a hazy, peach orange sunset, is a romantic concept that most young girls, irrespective of race or background, embrace and ultimately grow up to anticipate. They are taught that it is a magical paradise where they will have all of their needs met - and live happily-ever-after. They are taught that getting the romance is the goal and that after that everything is smooth sailing. Romantic love is thus an emotion surrounded by myths and metaphors, motivated by false hopes and the desire for a guarantee that somehow, a miserable life can be turned into happiness at a single stroke. Obviously that is not how it works in reality. Robert Solomon once remarked, â€Å"Love has become an obscure ideal, like TV ads, full of promise of something fabulous yet to come, hinted at but never spoken of as such.† We are told that we can we are in love by the we feel; the giddy disorientation, shaky, shivering hands, and your heart leaping within you. Unfortunately, these are also the warning signs of dengue fever, so it’s always a good idea to check with your do... ... romantic feelings to emerge before they initiate romantic activities. But it works the other way around! I personally would not cast of the idea of ‘romantic love’ as such because I believe that romantic love is powerful, but at the same time it is not omnipotent. Doubts, fears, insecurities, weak self-esteem, and silence can prevent its achievement. The problem lies not in the concept of romantic love but in the impossible demands made in its name. To be love is to realize that in the authentic relationship each person stands by his own perceptions. Sometimes its okay to go by the clichà ©s, which facilitate togetherness, but if it becomes permanent, communication is cancelled, and one is left with a low sense of oneself. The essence of true love can infact be compared to gift giving. The immeasurability of gift-giving, its wearying effects on the spirit when not reciprocated, can leave a person open to a tremendous sense of disappointment. This is just one of the risks a creative spirit takes in the world. Pursuing and maintaining romantic love is a risk too, but it is a wonderful risk, and it is the heavy price one might pay for it, that makes it so valuable in the first place.

Fundraising Event At St. Therese’s Parish

As part of the 75th anniversary of St. Therese’s Parish, the parish family, together with Monsignor Robert MacArthur has campaigned for a fundraising event that will support the festive celebration of its institution. The fundraising activity will involve the sales of the St. Therese’s 75th Anniversary Cookbook, which is a compilation of approximately 75 favorite and traditional recipes submitted by members of the parish themselves. The St. Therese’s 75th Anniversary Cookbook is a product of the members of the parish who are dedicated to serve the parish in their very own personal way. The cookbook will be sold for only $5. 00 a piece and all proceeds will go to the celebration of St. Therese’s 75th anniversary. The cookbook is dedicated to all former priests, sisters and parishioners who have provided their hard work and commitment to the parish in the early days and years, which in turn developed the foundation of what we now see at St. Therese’s Parish. It is well-known that many hands—and hearts, as well as God’s grace, have molded the current parish. The St. Therese’s 75th Anniversary Cookbook is composed of several sections—appetizers and beverages, salads and dressings, soups and sauces, vegetables, main dishes, breads, desserts, and even canning procedures, that will be very helpful to every home. Each entry has been lovingly written and submitted by parishioners, with their goal of sharing their good home recipes and at the same time helping out in raising funds for the coming joyous event at St. Therese’s. The St. Therese’s 75th Anniversary Cookbook will be available at the parish entrance after Holy Mass and will also be available at the corner grocery store, along Main Street and West Avenue. So hurry up and grab a copy of the St. Therese’s 75th Anniversary Cookbook and be part of the joyful group that is eager to share their oneness with the parish in raising funds for its 75th anniversary celebration!

Spirit Bound Chapter Twenty-Four

THE MAN GRINNED. â€Å"YOU MAKE that sound like a bad thing.† I made a face and looked back into the techno-bag with new appreciation. â€Å"What's going on?† â€Å"I'm the messenger. I just run errands for Mr. Mazur.† â€Å"Is that a nice way of saying you spy for him? Find out everyone's dirty secrets so that he can use them against people and keep playing his games?† Abe seemed to know everything about everyone–especially royal politics. How else could he manage it without having eyes and ears everywhere? Say, at Court? For all I knew, he had my room wired with microphones. â€Å"Spying's a harsh word.† I notice the guy didn't deny it. â€Å"Besides, he pays well. And he's a good boss.† He turned from me, job done, but gave one last warning. â€Å"Like I said–it's time sensitive. Read the note as soon as you can.† I had half a mind to throw it at the guy. I was getting used to the idea of being Abe's daughter, but that didn't mean I wanted to get tied up in some wacky scheme of his. A bag of hardware seemed foreboding. Nonetheless, I hauled it back to my suite and emptied the contents onto my bed. There were a few sheets of paper, the top one being a typed cover letter. Rose, I hope Tad was able to get this to you in a timely manner. And I hope you weren't too mean to him. I'm doing this on behalf of someone who wants to speak to you about an urgent matter. However, it's a conversation that no one else must hear. The laptop and satellite modem in this bag will allow you to have a private discussion, so long as you're in a private location. I've included step-by-step instructions on how to configure it. Your meeting will take place at 7 a.m. There was no name at the bottom, but I didn't need one. I set the letter down and stared at the jumble of cords. Seven was less than an hour away. â€Å"Oh, come on, old man,† I exclaimed. To Abe's credit, the accompanying papers did have very basic directions that didn't require a computer engineer's insight. The only problem was, there were a lot of them, detailing where each cord went, what password to log in with, how to configure the modem, and so on. For a moment I considered ignoring it all. Yet when someone like Abe used the word urgent, it made me think maybe I shouldn't be so hasty in my dismissal. So, bracing myself for some technical acrobatics, I set to following his instructions. It took almost the entire time I had, but I managed to hook up the modem and camera and access the secure program that would allow me to video-conference with Abe's mysterious contact. I finished with a few minutes to spare and waited the time out by staring at a black window in the middle of the screen, wondering what I'd gotten myself into. At exactly seven, the window came to life, and a familiar–but unexpected–face appeared. â€Å"Sydney?† I asked in surprise. The video had that same, slightly jerky feel most Internet feeds had, but nonetheless, the face of my (kind of) friend Sydney Sage smiled back at me. Hers was a dry-humored smile, but that was typical of her. â€Å"Good morning,† she said, stifling a yawn. From the state of her chin-length blond hair, it was likely she'd just gotten out of bed. Even in the poor resolution, the golden lily tattoo on her cheek gleamed. All Alchemists had that same tattoo. It consisted of ink and Moroi blood, imparting Moroi good health and longevity to the wearer. It also had a bit of compulsion mixed in to keep the Alchemists' secret society from revealing anything they shouldn't about vampires. â€Å"Evening,† I said. â€Å"Not morning.† â€Å"We can argue your messed-up unholy schedule some other time,† she said. â€Å"That's not what I'm here for.† â€Å"What are you here for?† I asked, still astonished to see her. The Alchemists did their jobs almost reluctantly, and while Sydney liked me better than most Moroi or dhampirs, she wasn't the type to make friendly phone (or video) calls. â€Å"Wait†¦ you can't be in Russia. Not if it's morning†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I tried to remember the time change. Yes, for humans over there, the sun would be down or about to be right now. â€Å"I'm back in my native country,† she said with mock grandeur. â€Å"Got a new post in New Orleans.† â€Å"Whoa, nice.† Sydney had hated being assigned to Russia, but my impression had been she was stuck there until finishing her Alchemist internship. â€Å"How'd you manage that?† Her small smile turned to an expression of discomfort. â€Å"Oh, well. Abe, um, kind of did me a favor. He made it happen.† â€Å"You made a deal with him?† Sydney must have really hated Russia. And Abe's influence must have really been deep if he could affect a human organization. â€Å"What did you give him in return? Your soul?† Making a joke like that to someone as religious as her wasn't very appropriate. Of course, I think she thought Moroi and dhampirs ate souls, so maybe my comment wasn't too out there. â€Å"That's the thing,† she said. â€Å"It was kind of an ‘I'll let you know when I need a favor in the future' arrangement.† â€Å"Sucker,† I said. â€Å"Hey,† she snapped. â€Å"I don't have to be doing this. I'm actually doing you a favor by talking to you.† â€Å"Why are you talking to me exactly?† I wanted to question her more about her open-ended deal with the devil but figured that would get me disconnected. She sighed and brushed some hair out of her face. â€Å"I need to ask you something. And I swear I won't tell on you†¦ I just need to know the truth so that we don't waste our time on something.† â€Å"Okay†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Please don't ask me about Victor, I prayed. â€Å"Have you broken into any place lately?† Damn. I kept my face perfectly neutral. â€Å"What do you mean?† â€Å"The Alchemists had some records stolen recently,† she explained. She was all business-serious now. â€Å"And everyone's going crazy trying to figure out who did it–and why.† Mentally, I breathed a sigh of relief. Okay. It wasn't about Tarasov. Thank God there was one crime I wasn't guilty of. Then the full meaning of her words hit me. I glared. â€Å"Wait. You guys get robbed, and I'm the one you suspect? I thought I was off your list of evil creatures?† â€Å"No dhampir is off my list of evil creatures,† she said. That half smile of hers had returned, but I couldn't tell if she was joking or not. It faded quickly, showing what a big deal this was for her. â€Å"And believe me, if anyone could break into our records, you could. It's not easy. Practically impossible.† â€Å"Um, thank you?† I wasn't sure if I should feel flattered or not. â€Å"Of course,† she continued scornfully, â€Å"they only stole paper records, which was stupid. Everything's backed up digitally nowadays, so I'm not sure why they'd go digging through dinosaur filing cabinets.† I could give her a lot of reasons why someone would do that, but finding out why I was her number-one suspect was more important. â€Å"That is stupid. So why do you think I'd do it?† â€Å"Because of what was stolen. It was information about a Moroi named Eric Dragomir.† â€Å"I–what?† â€Å"That's your friend, right? His daughter, I mean.† â€Å"Yeah†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I was almost speechless. Almost. â€Å"You have files on Moroi?† â€Å"We have files on everything,† she said proudly. â€Å"But when I tried to think who could commit a crime like this and would be interested in a Dragomir†¦ well, your name popped into my head.† â€Å"I didn't do it. I do a lot of things, but not that. I didn't even know you had those kinds of records.† Sydney regarded me suspiciously. â€Å"It's the truth!† â€Å"Like I said before,† she told me, â€Å"I won't turn you in. Seriously. I just want to know so that I can get people to stop wasting time on certain leads.† Her smugness sobered. â€Å"And, well, if you did do it†¦ I need to keep the attention off you. I promised Abe.† â€Å"Whatever it takes for you to believe me, I didn't do it! But now I want to know who did. What did they steal? Everything on him?† She bit her lip. Owing Abe a favor might mean she'd go behind her own people's backs, but she apparently had limits on how much she'd betray. â€Å"Come on! If you've got digital backup, you have to know what was taken. This is Lissa we're talking about.† An idea came to me. â€Å"Could you send me copies?† â€Å"No,† she said swiftly. â€Å"Absolutely not.† â€Å"Then please†¦ just a hint of what they were about! Lissa's my best friend. I can't let anything happen to her.† I fully braced myself for rejection. Sydney didn't seem very personable. Did she have friends? Could she understand what I felt? â€Å"Mostly bio stuff,† she said at last. â€Å"Some of his history and observations we'd made.† â€Å"Observ–† I let it go, deciding I really didn't want to know more than I had to about Alchemists spying on us. â€Å"Anything else?† â€Å"Financial records.† She frowned. â€Å"Particularly about some large deposits he made to a bank account in Las Vegas. Deposits he went out of his way to cover up.† â€Å"Las Vegas? I was just there†¦.† Not that it was relevant. â€Å"I know,† she said. â€Å"I saw some Witching Hour security tapes of your adventure. The fact that you'd run off like that is part of why I suspected you. It seemed in character.† She hesitated. â€Å"The guy with you†¦ the tall Moroi with dark hair†¦ is that your boyfriend?† â€Å"Er, yeah.† It took a long time and great effort for her to concede the next statement. â€Å"He's cute.† â€Å"For an evil creature of the night?† â€Å"Of course.† She hesitated again. â€Å"Is it true you guys went there to elope?† â€Å"What? No! These stories get to you guys too?† I shook my head, almost laughing at how ridiculous this all was, but knowing I needed to get back to the facts. â€Å"So, Eric had an account in Vegas he was moving money into?† â€Å"It wasn't his. It was some woman's.† â€Å"What woman?† â€Å"No one–well, no one we can track. She was just down as ‘Jane Doe.'† â€Å"Original,† I muttered. â€Å"Why would he be doing that?† â€Å"That we don't know. Or really care about. We just want to know who broke in and stole our stuff.† â€Å"The only thing I know about that is that it wasn't me.† Seeing her scrutinizing look, I threw up my hands. â€Å"Come on! If I wanted to know about him, I'd just ask Lissa. Or steal our own records.† Several moments of silence passed. â€Å"Okay. I believe you,† she said. â€Å"Really?† â€Å"Do you want me to not believe you?† â€Å"No, it was just easier than I thought convincing you.† She sighed. â€Å"I want to know more about these records,† I said fiercely. â€Å"I want to know who Jane Doe is. If you could get me other files–â€Å" Sydney shook her head. â€Å"Nope. This is where I cut you off. You know too much already. Abe wanted me to keep you out of trouble, and I've done that. I've done my part.† â€Å"I don't think Abe's going to let you go so easily. Not if you made an open-ended deal.† She didn't acknowledge that, but the look in her brown eyes made me think she agreed. â€Å"Good night, Rose. Morning. Whatever.† â€Å"Wait, I–â€Å" The screen went black. â€Å"Damn,† I growled, shutting the laptop more forcefully than I should have. Every part of that conversation had been a shock, starting with Sydney and ending with someone stealing Alchemist records about Lissa's father. Why would anyone care about a dead man? And why steal the records at all? To learn something? Or to try to hide information? If that last one was true, then Sydney was right that it had been a failed effort. I replayed it all in my head as I got ready for bed, staring at my reflection while brushing my teeth. Why, why, why? Why do it? And who? I needed no more intrigue in my life, but anything involving Lissa had to be treated seriously. Unfortunately, it soon became clear I wouldn't figure out anything tonight, and I fell asleep with all those questions spinning around in my head. I woke up the next morning feeling a little less overwhelmed–but still short on answers. I debated whether or not to tell Lissa about what I'd learned and finally decided I should. If someone was gathering information on her father, she had a right to know, and besides, this was hardly the same as rumors about his– A thought startled me in the middle of scrubbing shampoo into my hair. I'd been too tired and surprised to string together the pieces last night. That guy at the Witching Hour had said Lissa's dad was there a lot. Now Sydney's records reported that he'd made large deposits into an account in Las Vegas. Coincidence? Maybe. But as time went on, I was starting not to believe in coincidences anymore. Once presentable, I set out toward Lissa's side of Court–but didn't get very far. Adrian was waiting for me down in my building's foyer, slumped back into an armchair. â€Å"It's early for you, isn't it?† I teased, coming to a stop in front of him. I expected a smile in return, but Adrian didn't look particularly cheerful this morning. In fact, he appeared kind of bedraggled. His hair lacked its usual styling care, and his clothing–unusually dressy for this time of day–was wrinkled. The scent of clove cigarettes hung around him. â€Å"Easy to be early when you don't get much sleep,† he responded. â€Å"I was up a lot of the night waiting for someone.† â€Å"Waiting for–oh. God.† The party. I'd totally forgotten the party his mother had invited me to. Abe and Sydney had distracted me. â€Å"Adrian, I'm so sorry.† He shrugged and didn't touch me when I sat down on the arm of his chair. â€Å"Whatever. I probably shouldn't be surprised anymore. I'm starting to realize I've been deluding myself.† â€Å"No, no. I was going to go, but then you won't believe what–â€Å" â€Å"Save it. Please.† His voice was weary, his eyes bloodshot. â€Å"It's not necessary. My mom told me she saw you over at Dimitri's questioning.† I frowned. â€Å"But that's not why I missed the party. There was this guy–â€Å" â€Å"That's not the point, Rose. The point is that you managed to make time for that–and a visit to his cell, if what I heard is true. Yet, you couldn't bother showing up at something you said you'd do with me–or even send a message. That was all you had to do: say you couldn't go. I waited over an hour for you at my parents' house before giving up.† I started to say he could have tried to contact me, but honestly, why should he have? It wasn't his responsibility. I was the one who'd told Daniella I'd meet him there. It was my fault for not showing up. â€Å"Adrian, I'm sorry.† I clasped his hand, but he didn't squeeze back. â€Å"Really, I meant to, but–â€Å" â€Å"No,† he interrupted again. â€Å"Ever since Dimitri came back†¦ no, scratch that. Ever since you became obsessed with changing him, you've been torn over me. No matter what's happened between us, you've never really given yourself over to our relationship. I wanted to believe what you told me. I thought you were ready†¦ but you weren't.† Protests rose to my lips, but once more, I stopped them. He was right. I'd said I'd give dating him a fair shot. I'd even sunk into the comfortable role of his girlfriend, yet the whole time†¦ the whole time, part of me had been consumed with Dimitri. I'd known it too but had kept living split lives. A weird flashback to my time with Mason popped into my head. I'd led the same double life with him, and he'd died for it. I was a mess. I didn't know my own heart. â€Å"I'm sorry,† I said again. â€Å"I really do want us to have something†¦.† Even to me, the words sounded so lame. Adrian gave me a knowing smile. â€Å"I don't believe that. Neither do you.† He stood up and ran his hand over his hair, not that it did any good. â€Å"If you really want to be with me, then you've got to mean it this time.† I hated seeing him so grim. I especially hated being the reason. I followed him to the door. â€Å"Adrian, wait. Let's talk more.† â€Å"Not now, little dhampir. I need some sleep. I just can't handle playing this game right now.† I could have gone after him. I could have tackled him to the ground. But it wouldn't have been worth it†¦ because I had no answers to give him. He'd been right about everything, and until I could make up my own confused mind, I had no right to force a talk. Besides, considering the state he was in, I doubted any further conversation would have been productive. Yet as he started to step outside, I couldn't help my next words. â€Å"Before you go–and I understand why you have to–there's something I've got to ask you. Something that's not about us. It affects–it affects Lissa.† This slowly brought him to a halt. â€Å"Always a favor.† With a world-weary sigh, he glanced at me over his shoulder. â€Å"Make it fast.† â€Å"Someone broke into the Alchemists' records and stole information about Lissa's dad. Some of it was ordinary life history stuff, but there were some documents about him making secret deposits into a bank account in Las Vegas. Some woman's bank account.† Adrian waited a few moments. â€Å"And?† â€Å"And I'm trying to figure out why someone would do that. I don't want anyone snooping around her family. Do you have any idea what her dad would have been doing?† â€Å"You heard the guy at the casino. Her dad was there a lot. Maybe he had gambling debts and was paying off a loan shark.† â€Å"Lissa's family's always had money,† I pointed out. â€Å"He couldn't have gotten into that much debt. And why would anyone care enough to steal that info?† Adrian threw up his hands. â€Å"I don't know. That's all I've got, at least this early in the morning. I don't have the brain power for intrigue. I can't really picture any of that being a threat to Lissa, though.† I nodded, disappointed. â€Å"Okay. Thanks.† He continued on his way, and I watched him go. Lissa lived near him, but I didn't want him to think I was following him. When he'd put enough distance between us, I stepped outdoors as well and started to head in the same direction. The faint sound of bells brought me to a halt. I hesitated, suddenly unsure where to go. I wanted to talk to Lissa and tell her what Sydney had told me. Lissa was alone for a change; this was the perfect opportunity. And yet†¦ the bells. It was Sunday morning. Mass was about to start at the Court's church. I had a hunch about something, and in spite of everything that had happened–including with Adrian–I had to see if I was right. So I sprinted off toward the church, going in the opposite direction of Lissa's building. The doors were shut when I reached my destination, but a few other latecomers were trying to quietly slip in. I entered with them, pausing to get my bearings. Clouds of incense hung in the air, and my eyes took a moment to adjust from sunlight to candlelight. Since this church dwarfed St. Vladimir's chapel, it was packed with a lot more people than I was used to seeing at mass. Most of the seats were full. But not all of them. My hunch had been right. Dimitri sat in one of the back pews. A few guardians sat near him, of course, but that was it. Even in a crowded church, no one else had joined him on the bench. Reece had asked Dimitri if he'd step inside the church yesterday, and Dimitri had gone one step further, saying he'd even go to Sunday services. The priest had already begun to speak, so I moved down Dimitri's pew as quietly as I could. Silence didn't matter, though, because I still attracted a fair amount of attention from nearby people who were astonished to see me sitting next to the Strigoi-turned-dhampir. Eyes stared and several hushed conversations broke out. The guardians had left some space near Dimitri, and when I sat beside him, the look on his face showed he was both surprised and not surprised by this. â€Å"Don't,† he said in a hushed voice. â€Å"Don't start–not in here.† â€Å"Wouldn't dream of it, comrade,† I murmured back. â€Å"Just came for the good of my soul, that's all.† He didn't need to say a word to convey to me that he doubted I was here for any holy reasons. I stayed quiet throughout the service, though. Even I respected some boundaries. After several minutes, the tension in Dimitri's body eased a little. He'd grown wary when I joined him but must have eventually decided I'd be on good behavior. His attention shifted off of me and focused on the singing and the praying, and I did my best to watch him without being obvious. Dimitri used to go to the school's chapel because it brought him peace. He had always said that even though the killing he did destroyed evil in the world, he still felt the need to come think about his life and seek forgiveness for his sins. Seeing him now, I realized that was truer than ever. His expression was exquisite. I was so used to seeing him hide emotions that it was a bit startling for him to suddenly have a host of them on his face. He was absorbed in the priest's words, his gorgeous face completely focused. And I realized he was taking everything the priest was saying about sin personally. Dimitri was replaying all the awful things he'd done as a Strigoi. From the despair on his face, you'd think that Dimitri himself was responsible for all the sins of the world the priest spoke of. For a moment, I thought I saw hope on Dimitri's face too, just a spark of it mixed in with his guilt and sorrow. No, I realized. Not hope. Hope implies that you think you have a chance at something. What I saw in Dimitri was longing. Wistfulness. Dimitri wished that by being here in this holy place and listening to the messages conveyed, he might find redemption for what he had done. Yet†¦ at the same time, it was clear he didn't believe that was possible. He wanted it but could never have it as far as he was concerned. Seeing that in him hurt me. I didn't know how to react to that kind of bleak attitude. He thought there was no hope for him. Me? I couldn't imagine a world without hope. I also never would have imagined I'd quote back a church lesson, but when the rest of the crowd stood up to take communion, I found myself saying to Dimitri: â€Å"Don't you think that if God can supposedly forgive you, it's kind of egotistical for you not to forgive yourself?† â€Å"How long have you been waiting to use that line on me?† he asked. â€Å"Actually, it just came to me. Pretty good, huh? I bet you thought I wasn't paying attention.† â€Å"You weren't. You never do. You were watching me.† Interesting. To know that I was watching him, would Dimitri have had to have watched me watching him? It boggled the mind. â€Å"You didn't answer my question.† He kept his eyes on the communion line while composing his answer. â€Å"It's irrelevant. I don't have to forgive myself even if God does. And I'm not sure He would.† â€Å"That priest just said God would. He said God forgives everything. Are you calling the priest a liar? That's pretty sacrilegious.† Dimitri groaned. I never thought I'd take joy in tormenting him, but the frustrated look on his face wasn't because of his personal grief. It was because of me being impertinent. I'd seen this expression a hundred times on him, and the familiarity of it warmed me, as crazy as that sounds. â€Å"Rose, you're the one being sacrilegious. You're twisting these people's faith for your own purposes. You've never believed in any of this. You still don't.† â€Å"I believe that the dead can come back to life,† I said seriously. â€Å"The proof is sitting right next to me. If that's true, then I think you forgiving yourself isn't that much more of a leap.† His gaze hardened, and if he was praying for anything right then, it was that the communion process would speed up so that he could get out of here and away from me. We both knew he had to wait this church service out. If he ran out, it would make him look Strigoi. â€Å"You don't know what you're talking about,† he said. â€Å"Don't I?† I hissed, leaning closer. I did it to drive home my point, but all it did (for me, at least) was give me a better view of the way the candlelight shone on his hair and how long and lean his body was. Someone had apparently decided he could be trusted to shave, and his face was smooth, showing its wonderful, perfect lines. â€Å"I know exactly what I'm talking about,† I continued, trying to ignore how his presence affected me. â€Å"I know that you've been through a lot. I know that you did terrible things–I saw them. But it's in the past. It was beyond your control. It's not like you're going to do it again.† A strange, haunted look crossed his face. â€Å"How do you know? Maybe the monster didn't leave. Maybe there's still something Strigoi lurking in me.† â€Å"Then you need to defeat it by moving on with your life! And not just through your chivalrous pledge to protect Lissa. You need to live again. You need to open yourself up to people who love you. No Strigoi would do that. That's how you'll save yourself.† â€Å"I can't have people loving me,† he growled. â€Å"I'm incapable of loving anyone in return.† â€Å"Maybe you should try instead of just feeling sorry for yourself!† â€Å"It's not that easy.† â€Å"Da–† I just barely stopped myself from swearing in a church. â€Å"Nothing we've ever done has been easy! Our life before–before the attack wasn't easy, and we made it through that! We can make it through this too. We can make it through anything together. It doesn't matter if you put your faith in this place. I don't care. What matters is that you put your faith in us.† â€Å"There is no us. I've already told you that.† â€Å"And you know I'm not a very good listener.† We were keeping our voices low, but I think our body language clearly indicated an argument. The other churchgoers were too distracted to notice, but Dimitri's guardians were regarding us carefully. Again, I reminded myself about what Lissa and Mikhail had both said. Getting Dimitri angry in public was not going to do him any favors. The problem was, I had yet to say anything that didn't make him angry. â€Å"I wish you hadn't come here,† he said at last. â€Å"It's really better for us to stay apart.† â€Å"That's funny because I could have sworn you once said we were meant to be together.† â€Å"I want you to stay away from me,† he said, ignoring my comment. â€Å"I don't want you to keep trying to bring back feelings that are gone. That's the past. None of that's going to happen again. Not ever. It's better for us if we act like strangers. It's better for you.† The loving, compassionate feelings he had stirred within me heated up–to fury. â€Å"If you're going to tell me what I can or can't do,† I growled in as low a tone as I could manage, â€Å"then at least have the courage to say it to my face!† He spun around so quickly that he might have indeed still been Strigoi. His face was filled with†¦ what? Not that earlier depression. Not rage either, though there was a bit of anger. There was more, though†¦ a mingling of desperation, frustration, and maybe even fear. Underscoring all of it was pain, like he suffered from terrible, exquisite agony. â€Å"I don't want you here,† he said, eyes blazing. The words hurt, but something about it all thrilled me, just as his earlier agitation at my flippant comments had. This wasn't the cold and calculating Strigoi. This wasn't the defeated man in the cell. This was my old instructor, my lover, who attacked everything in life with intensity and passion. â€Å"How many times do I have to tell you that? You need to stay away from me.† â€Å"But you aren't going to hurt me. I know that.† â€Å"I've already hurt you. Why can't you understand that? How many times do I have to say it?† â€Å"You told me†¦ you told me before you left that you loved me.† My voice trembled. â€Å"How can you let that go?† â€Å"Because it's too late! And it's easier than being reminded of what I did to you!† His control snapped, his voice echoing through the back of the church. The priest and those still taking communion didn't notice, but we'd definitely gotten the attention of those in the back half of the church. A few of the guardians stiffened, and again, I had to repeat the warning to myself. No matter how furious I was at Dimitri, no matter how betrayed I felt that he'd turned away from me†¦ I could not risk others thinking he was dangerous. Dimitri hardly looked like he was going to snap someone's neck, but he was clearly upset, and one might confuse his frustration and pain for something more sinister. I turned from him, trying to calm my churning emotions. When I looked back, our eyes locked, power and electricity burning between us. Dimitri could ignore it all he wanted, but that connection–that deep calling of our souls–was still in there. I wanted to touch him, not just with this brushing of my leg but with everything. I wanted to wrap him in my arms and hold him against me, reassuring him that we could do anything together. Without even realizing it, I reached toward him, needing that touch. He sprang up like I was a snake, and all of his guardians shot forward, braced for what he might do. But he did nothing. Nothing except stare at me with a look that made my blood run cold. Like I was something strange and bad. â€Å"Rose. Please stop. Please stay away.† He was working hard to stay calm. I shot up, now as angry and frustrated as him. I had a feeling if I stayed, we'd both snap. In an undertone, I murmured, â€Å"This isn't over. I won't give up on you.† â€Å"I've given up on you,† he said back, voice also soft. â€Å"Love fades. Mine has.† I stared at him in disbelief. All this time, he'd never phrased it like that. His protests had always been about some greater good, about the remorse he felt over being a monster or how it had scarred him from love. I've given up on you. Love fades. Mine has. I backed up, the sting of those words hitting me as hard as if he'd slapped me. Something shifted in his features, like maybe he knew how much he'd hurt me. I didn't stick around to see. Instead, I pushed my way out of the aisle and ran out the doors in the back, afraid that if I stayed any longer, everyone in the church would see me cry.